Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.073555 0.084844 0.097671 0.113405 0.132290 0.154364 0.182312
2025-11-02 0.055133 0.068219 0.084420 0.106206 0.135125 0.172754 0.226353
2025-11-09 0.041947 0.054954 0.072237 0.097367 0.133796 0.186027 0.269135
2025-11-16 0.034548 0.047721 0.066428 0.095752 0.142137 0.215575 0.346997
2025-11-23 0.028814 0.041730 0.061209 0.093951 0.150232 0.248458 0.446675
2025-11-30 0.024816 0.037571 0.057938 0.094573 0.162984 0.294959 0.597822
2025-12-07 0.021525 0.033928 0.054796 0.094792 0.175667 0.347973 0.799623
2025-12-14 0.018376 0.029973 0.050381 0.091733 0.181537 0.391242 1.016061
2025-12-21 0.015167 0.025396 0.044031 0.083473 0.174161 0.402490 1.161357
2025-12-28 0.013490 0.023287 0.041881 0.083336 0.185515 0.468159 1.551081
2026-01-04 0.012289 0.021868 0.040804 0.085323 0.203294 0.564319 2.187892
2026-01-11 0.011127 0.020340 0.039227 0.085822 0.217872 0.662974 3.014790
2026-01-18 0.010077 0.018905 0.037662 0.086197 0.233430 0.782396 4.246728
2026-01-25 0.008998 0.017253 0.035324 0.084034 0.240817 0.880777 5.659216
2026-02-01 0.007938 0.015492 0.032439 0.079684 0.239522 0.944949 7.080528
2026-02-08 0.007313 0.014588 0.031412 0.080355 0.256862 1.120369 10.413252
2026-02-15 0.006737 0.013709 0.030294 0.080495 0.272895 1.314387 15.332421
2026-02-22 0.006308 0.013106 0.029764 0.082362 0.297717 1.603647 24.640967
2026-03-01 0.005900 0.012497 0.029109 0.083678 0.321664 1.936355 40.037839
2026-03-08 0.005420 0.011650 0.027672 0.081951 0.330825 2.181916 58.720001
2026-03-15 0.004821 0.010443 0.025060 0.075403 0.312517 2.167399 68.009062
2026-03-22 0.004526 0.009958 0.024402 0.075837 0.331937 2.560940 113.811461
2026-03-29 0.004316 0.009660 0.024228 0.078083 0.363802 3.185300 224.073293